Monday, November 26, 2007

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sabres, November 26th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Caps fans are happy this morning…well, maybe as happy as Caps fans get, the product of having won two games in a row under new coach Bruce Boudreau. With two games in the “W” column, it might be time to take the pulse of Caps Nation – now that it has one – and check the ol’ mail bag…

Dear Peerless,

See, that wasn’t so hard, was it? It’s always tough the first time, but then it gets easier, especially when you hire the same guy back several times.

Signed,
George in the Bronx



George…you going to hire Billy back one more time? You can’t do any worse than you’ve done the last half dozen years.


**********

Dear Peerless,

I probably shouldn’t mention this, but I hate wings.

Signed,
The City of Buffalo



Buffalo…add it to the list – snow, Super Bowls, Bill Belichick…

**********

Dear Peerless,

Hey, we’re going to have our own special on Food Network. What’s our special recipe?....Turnovers!

Signed,
Joe in Ashburn


Joe…I would have thought “toast”…like in your playoff hopes.


**********

Dear Peerless,

Do you have any good recipes for turkey leftovers?

Signed,
Everybody



Everybody…I’ll send you Joe in Ashburn’s address.


**********

Dear Peerless,

Can the Caps win 61 games in a row?

Signed,
Caps Discussion Boards



CDB…you’ve been reading this column too much.


**********

Dear Peerless,

Is Bruce Boudreau available weekends?

Signed,
Dan in Ashburn



Dan…you’ll have to ask Ted on that one.


**********

Peerless,

Stop prognosticating, you pompous, pedantic, pontificating pile of pusillanimous poo…you’re giving us a bad name.

Signed,
The Great and Powerful Oz



Oz…don’t you have a balloon to catch?


**********

Well, so much for the mail, what about the game? Tonight it is the Buffalo Sabres that visit Verizon Center to take on the surging Caps (hey, two wins in a row is a surge in these parts!).

The Sabres find themselves – unexpectedly – on the outside looking in at the playoff mix. Being 10-10-1 after 21 games and 13th in the Eastern Conference probably wasn’t in the plan for the 2007-2008 season. It really is a “then and now” act for Buffalo over their first 21 games…

Then (2006-2007): 17-3-1
Now (2007-2008): 10-10-1

Then: 92 goals for (4.38/game)
Now: 61 goals for (2.90/game)

Then: 62 goals against (2.95/game)
Now: 58 goals against (2.76/game)

Then: plus-31 goal differential (+ 1.48/game)
Now: plus-3 goal differential (+ 0.14/game)


Oddly enough, the problem isn’t special teams:

Power Play Then: 24/119 (20.2 percent)
Power Play Now: 20/99 (20.2 percent)

Penalty Kill Then: 96/114 (84.2 percent)
Penalty Kill Now: 79/93 (84.9 percent)

Differential Then: +6
Differential Now: +6


What this suggests is not that the Sabres lack talent on the offensive end – they don’t…not with the likes of Thomas Vanek and Derek Roy in the lineup. It isn’t even as if the team lacks the balance that has made them successful in recent years. Players such as Jason Pominville, Jochen Hecht, a healthier Tim Connolly, Brian Campbell, and the like, have contributed to having nine players in double digits in points (the Caps have four) and six players with at least two power play goals (the Caps have three).

What the Sabres lack – or have had to get used to – is not having Daniel Briere and Chris Drury centering the scoring lines. In the last ten days, though, Buffalo seems to have found their stride. They come into Washington with a four game winning streak, outscoring the opposition 15-5. Over those four games, typically, they've shown their balance. Ten different players have the 15 goals, none more than two (Vanek, Dan Paille, Drew Stafford, and Clarke MacArthur).

If you’re looking for a Sabre who bears close attention, it might not be the $7 million man, Thomas Vanek ($7.143 million, actually). It would be Derek Roy. In 11 career games against the Caps, Roy is 6-6-12, +11. Things happen when he is out there, and not usually good for the good guys.

In goal, Ryan Miller is likely to get the nod. After what was, for him, a slow start (2-5-0, 3.32, .886), he’s righted himself (6-4-1 since that start, 2.16, .924) and has won his last three outings. Against the Caps over his career, he is 5-1-0, 2.95, .897, and a shutout.

The Caps, on the other hand, have rediscovered special teams…if you think back to those two wins to start the year, the Caps scored a power play goal in each game and held Atlanta and Carolina off the power play score sheet (0/8). In the last two wins, the Caps are 4-for-7 on the power play, and they’ve held Philadelphia and Carolina to one goal in eight chances.

Alexander Ovechkin hasn’t missed a beat with the coaching change – he is riding an eight-game points streak (7-3-10) and, consistent with his…consistency, has goals in six of those eight games.

With his five points over his last two games (1-4-5), Nicklas Backstrom has climbed to third in the rookie scoring race and is second among rookies in assists. His two game-winning goals tops the league’s rookies (ok, he’s tied with Erik Johnson), and he is one of only two rookies with an overtime game-winner (the Sabres’ Clarke MacArthur being the other).

This could be an entertaining game, if you’re of the new school of NHL hockey – a high scoring game with an emphasis on special teams. That’s what we think it is going to be, and the Caps will match their start out of the 2007-2008 gate with their third in a row for Bruce Boudreau…

Caps 6 – Sabres 4

No comments: