The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, March 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, you can count the games left on one hand. Last September seems like yesterday afternoon, and we’re almost to the end already. But there is work to be done, and the Caps will get to it tonight against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

With five games left, two points to make up on Boston, four on Philadelphia and Carolina, we’re left with a simple question…”can they or can’t they?” Well, we could go to hockey pundits and get their wise take, but you can go read about that. Nope, we’re going right to the source…the Magic 8-ball.

Our first question…

Will Alex Ovechkin hold off Evgeni Malkin for the scoring title?

“You believe this crap?”

Why, it’s Cheerless Prognosticator, our hang-dog cousin who never saw a sunny day he didn’t think would turn into a thunderstorm.

“Yeah, yeah…what about this 8-ball stuff?”

We professional prognosticators use every tool…

“…you mean every trick.”

…every tool at our disposal.

“Hey, Cheerless, knock it off…I wanna see how this comes out.”

“Fearless, you’re as dumb as a bucket o’ rocks.”

OK, back to the prognostifying…

Will the Caps win at least four of their last five games?

“You get a deal on 8-balls, cuz?”

“Looks honest to me, Cheerless.”

You’re breaking the fog of mystery here, guys.

“That ain’t fog…that’s last night’s bratwurst.”

Okay, okay…will the Caps overtake the Bruins?

“Why don’t you ask it if the sun will rise in the east?”

“Shhh…don’t spoil it, Cheerless.”

Will the Caps overtake the Flyers?

“Can I ask it one?”

Sure, Fearless, give it a shot…

“Will David Archuleta win ‘American Idol?’”

Hey, let’s stick to hockey, ok? Who will the Caps play in the first round of the playoffs?

That’s looking far into the future…too far for our purposes, even if Penguin fans are drooling at the prospect. Tonight, it’s Tampa, and the Lightning have gone from playoff contender to lottery team faster than you can say, “Tortorella.”

On Valentine’s Day, the Lightning beat the Flyers, 5-3, to haul themselves to within two games of .500. Then, they lost their next game to the Caps, 3-2, on a late goal from Alexander Semin, which sent them spinning toward Lotteryville…

Record (since February 14^th): 5-11-2
Goals for/against: 45-56
Power play: 13/62 (21.0%)
Penalty killing: 58/69 (84.1%)
Record in one-goal games: 1-4-2

Tampa hasn’t been awful, and there is a caution in this for the Caps. They have merely been consistent…consistently good enough to lose often. Except for a three game winning streak from March 11^th through March 15^th, Tampa has shown themselves adept at stringing losses together…an 0-4-1 streak from February 16^th through February 27^th…another 0-4-1 streak from March 1^st through March 9^th…a three game losing streak from March 19^th through March 22^nd.

When one thinks of the Lightning, what comes to mind immediately is goaltending, and the problems they’ve had with it. The odd thing, though, is that Tampa’s goals-per-game allowed over the last 18 games (3.11/game) is lower than their season figure (3.22/game, 29^th in the league). This is not to say that their goaltending has been good, just that it is not the only problem.

Well, if we're interested in finding a problem, let’s start with even-strength scoring. Tampa has been outscored 43-31 at even strength over these last 18 games. Getting outscored by two-thirds of a goal a game at even-strength is a sure-fire way to sink in the standings. And that 31 goals scored should be a concern (1.82/game) as well. How bad is the even-strength performance? The individual performances tell the story…

Vincent Lecavalier: 8-6-14, -17 (no, we’re not kidding)
Martin St. Louis: 2-7-9, -19 (honest)
Dan Boyle: 1-12-13, -17 (no, really…)
Paul Ranger: 0-4-4, -8 (yeesh…)

And did coming in new to the Lightning at the trade deadline make a difference? …well, Jussi Jokinen is 14 games, 1-9-10, -10, in 14 games after coming over from Dallas.

We’re thinking Brad Richards (2-7-9, -2 since joining Dallas) and Vaclav Prospal (3-8-11, +5 in 14 games since joining the Flyers) were not the problems.

On the other hand, Jeff Halpern, who also came over from Dallas, is 7-8-15, +4 in 13 games, and Michel Ouellet is 9-5-14, +7 since February 16^th for the Lightning. But if it's these guys leading the way, there is a problem.

As poorly as the top guys have been over the last six weeks, once has to wonder, have they simply tuned out their coach? It’s a question that seems reasonable to ask, and one that might get some attention in the off season. Tampa lacks for a balance of talent, but that's hardly a new development. They’ve been in a nose-dive in the last month with key players who are just a few years removed from a Stanley Cup and still in the prime of their respective careers.

What isn’t likely to be a product of coaching is the goaltending situation. It wasn’t all that good to start the season, and it hasn’t improved much. Johan Holmqvist lost the first three games (one in overtime) in this 18-game drought, then got shipped to Dallas. Enter Mike Smith. Since coming to Tampa from Dallas, Smith has performed well – 2.62, .900…almost Vezina-like, given what Tampa goaltending has looked like the last couple of years. But he’s been unlucky, too, managing only 3-7-0 record in ten games. Karri Ramo has the other five appearances, going 2-2-1, 2.78, .907.

Tampa Bay is a club that neither plays well with a lead (20^th in winning percentage when leading after one period, 28^th when leading after two), nor when trailing (28^th in winning percentage when trailing after one period, 30^th when trailing after two). As to the latter, the Lighting are 0-24-2 when trailing after two. The Caps are 1-25-2. If you have to catch an early flight on Friday morning, you might get a head-start on sleep just by noticing who is leading after 40 minutes.

This is a lot like the Atlanta game last Friday. The Caps are visiting a team they could, should, and must beat. But Tampa is dangerous enough with the likes of Lecavalier and St. Louis to make things difficult. And remember, it took a four-goal eruption by the Caps in the third period to overtake the Thrashers and win, 5-3.

It makes us want to ask…who will win this game?

Caps 5 – Lightning 2.