The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals have had three days off, but on
Saturday begin their last and hopefully best push to a playoff spot when they
host the Boston Bruins at Verizon Center. If you are a hockey fan, you know
what the Caps are up against here. On the first day of March, the Bruins lost
to the Caps in this same venue by a 4-2 score. After that game Boston was
sitting in second place in the Eastern Conference, five points behind the
Pittsburgh Penguins.
Boston has not lost in regulation time since, though, posting
a record of 13-0-1 that all but settles the matter of the number one seed in
the Eastern Conference for the playoffs. The Bruins lead the Pens by seven
points in the Conference standings and have a 15-point lead on the Montreal
Canadiens in the Atlantic Division.
The Bruins have been nothing short of dominating:
They have not just beaten teams, they have obliterated them
during this streak…
-- Eight wins by three or more goals
-- Eight games in which they scored four or more goals
-- Nine games in which they allowed fewer than two goals,
including three shutouts
-- 7-0-0 on the road, 6-0-1 at home
Boston’s scoring balance has been nothing short of amazing.
In their 13-0-1 run, 17 different skaters have goals, 20 different players have
points. Three players – Jarome Iginla (11), Carl Soderberg (5), and Patrice
Bergeron (5) – have at least five goals. Five players – Iginla (14), Bergeron
(14), Soderberg (11), Milan Lucic (10), and David Krejci (10) have at least ten
points.
Iginla is a remarkable case by himself. With his 11 goals in
14 games he now has 28 for the season. He is on the doorstep of becoming just
the sixth player of the age 36 or older to record 30 goals in a season since
the 2004-2005 lockout and just the 12th to do it in the last 30 years. How is
he doing it? It is not based on a juiced shooting percentage. His 14.6 percent
shooting percentage this season, while better than his career average (13.2) is
not outlandishly so. He had five better seasons with Calgary over his 15-plus
seasons there. Shots? Not really. His 2.63 shots per game this season is
indistinguishable from the 2.62 per game he has in his brief Pittsburgh stay
last season (after famously spurning a deal that would have sent him from
Calgary to Boston) and is substantially lower than his career average of 3.23
per game.
Iginla is doing it with durability. He is one of six Bruins to have
dressed for all 73 games this season. It has been his hallmark as a player.
Never in a full 82-game season – 16 of them, including this one – has Iginla
dressed for fewer than 70 games. Nine times he played in all 82 games and is on
pace to make it ten this season. In 20 career games against the Caps he is
6-10-16.
At the other end of the spectrum – in age, tenure, and
position – there is Dougie Hamilton. Over last 14 games, Hamilton leads the
Bruins in scoring from the back line (1-7-8). In fact, since Hamilton endured a
15-game stretch over which he recorded just one assist, the 20-year old is
4-12-16 in his last 27 games. Hamilton, the ninth overall pick in the 2011
entry draft, has been fast tracked to the NHL, having spent only one more year
in junior after being drafted and not a game in the AHL before suiting up for
the B’s as a rookie last season. He is 1-1-2 in four career games against Washington.
Here is how the Caps and Bruins compare overall…
1. When Boston defeated the Chicago Blackhawks, 3-0, on
Thursday, it was their 50th win of the 2013-2014 season. That made it nine
times in franchise history that the Bruins won 50 or more games in a season. No
NHL team has done it more often. No, not
even Montreal, who did it six times. The
Bruins did it six times between 1970-1971 and 1982-1983.
2. Boston is one of
two teams in the league in the top-ten of lowest goals allowed in each of the
first, second, and third periods of games (Los Angeles is the other). Boston has allowed both the fewest first
period goals and the fewest third period goals this season (they are eighth in
second period goals allowed).
3. Boston has 35
multiple-goal wins this season. No one
is close in second place (Chicago and St. Louis have 28).
4. Boston is not shy
about dropping the mitts. The Bruins are
tied for second in the league in fighting majors (43), trailing only Toronto
(46).
5. As you might
expect, Boston is an accomplished possession team. In 5-on-5 close score situations the Bruins
are top five in Corsi-for percentage (3rd/54.9), Fenwick-for
percentage (4th/54.2), shots-for percentage (5th/53.1),
and goals-for percentage (1st/63.4).
Here is the thing, though. The
spend a comparatively low amount of time in those 5-on-5 close score situations
(14th/2174.2 minutes). The Bruins do not often play in close games.
1. The Caps’ six-game
streak with points earned (4-0-2) is their longest this season.
Last season the Caps had a ten-game streak (Games 34-43) as part of a
closing kick that saw them go 14-2-2 to close the regular season.
2. The Caps are on
the wrong side of the “top” rankings in one important metric. The Caps are in the bottom ten in 5-on-5
goals scored (T-8th/123) and in the bottom ten in 5-on-5 goals
allowed (10th/140).
3. Evgeny Kuznetsov
is now tied for 18th on the club in points with six in eight games
(tied with Connor Carrick and Nate Schmist).
Next up… Jay Beagle with seven.
With a big night he could catch Dmitry Orlov (9).
4. Mike Green has
been stuck on nine goals for five games.
If he gets one in this contest, the Caps would be the fourth team to
have two defensemen with at least ten goals (John Carlson being the other for
the Caps). Boston, Nashville, and
Pittsburgh are the others.
5. The Caps are 4-0-2
in their last six games, but they are not doing it with possession. Their cumulative Corsi-for and Fenwick-for
percentages in 5-on-5 close score situations over those games are 48.2 and 48.1,
respectively. They do have seven goals
scored versus six allowed, though, and that provides a clue as to how the Caps
fashioned six straight games with points.
Their save percentage in those games in those situations is .930.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Boston: Tuukka Rask
Tuukka Rask has staked a claim to being one of the elite
goaltenders in the NHL. Rask is fifth in
wins, third in goals against average, second in save percentage, first in save
percentage at even strength (minimum 20 games).
In Boston’s 13-0-1 run, Rask is 8-0-1, 1.31, .953, with two
shutouts. He has not allowed more than
three goals in consecutive games this season and has allowed more than three
only eight times in 53 appearances. He
has allowed fewer than two goals 25 times.
And, Rask is not a creature of abnormally low shot totals faced. This season he is facing an average of 29.1
shots on goal per game. He is 1-3-3,
2.99, .891 in his career against the Caps.
So far, if he allows a goal to the Caps, he loses. His only career win is a 3-0 shutout of the Caps on March 6th.
Washington: Marcus
Johansson
On January 4th and 9th, Marcus
Johansson scored goals in consecutive games.
Since then, Johansson has one goal in his last 29 games (1-10-11). It is possible that Johansson will set a
career high in points this season. The
40 he has (8-32-40) is within six of the 46 he recorded in 2011-2012. The 32 assists tie his career best set in
that same 2011-2012 season. However,
getting as much top line ice time as he gets (third on the team in even
strength ice time per game), one might expect more scoring of his own. The Caps certainly could use it down the
stretch. He is 4-3-7 in 11 career games
against Boston.
Keys:
1. Be quick, but not
hasty. Boston is one of those deep,
grinding teams that will challenge opponents all over the ice. The trick for the Capitals is to make
decisions with the Bruins giving them little time to make them, but not so as
to be hasty and lured into turnovers.
2. Score first. When Boston scores first, it is their
game. Their 38-5-1 record when scoring
the game’s first goal is second best in the league. In their 13-0-1 run Boston scored first in
ten of those games.
3. “Never stop, never
stop fighting till the fight is done.”
That is a quote from the movie, “The Untouchables,” but certainly
applies here. In their 13-0-1 streak the
Bruins have outscored opponents in the third period by a 23-7 margin. Boston recorded a third period goal in 12 of
those 14 games and never allowed an opponent more than one goal in the final
frame.
In the end…
This is as tough as it gets. Boston has been playing at a
stratospheric level for going on a month.
One might wonder if they are peaking to soon, but that is of no relevance
in this game. Beating the Bruins, even
at home, will take nothing less than the Caps’ best effort, perhaps their best
effort of the season.
Capitals 3 – Bruins 2
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