The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals will be looking to rebound from
Wednesday night’s loss to the Montreal Canadiens when they host the Minnesota
Wild at Verizon Center on Friday night in the last game of the club’s four-game
home stand.
The Caps are in the position for the 11th time this season
of trying to avoid consecutive losses in regulation time. The Caps are 9-0-1 in the first ten instances
(twice they have lost consecutive games, one of the losses coming in extra time
in each instance).
Meanwhile, the Wild will be coming to Washington hot off
their Thursday night game in Philadelphia against the Flyers. They head to Philadelphia winners of four of
their last five games, the loss coming on Tuesday against the New York
Islanders. The loss ended a four-game
winning streak to open the tenure of new coach John Torchetti, who replaced
Mike Yeo, relieved of his duties by the club on February 13th.
Minnesota certainly “torched” opponents in their most recent
five games under Torchetti. They scored
five or more goals in each of the four wins to open his tenure and overall have
outscored opponents 22-12. They had
power play goals in each of the four wins, going 5-for-21 overall (23.8
percent), while their penalty kill went 11-for-16 (68.8 percent).
There are 14 different Wild skaters recording at least one
goal in their 4-1-0 run. Charlie Coyle
is tied for the lead with three. Coyle
has been quite something else this season for the Wild, obliterating his career
high in goals (12 in 2013-2014) with 18 so far this season, eight of them in
his last 14 games and doing it on just 28 shots on goal (28.6 percent
shooting). If there is an odd part about
his goal scoring, none of his ten most recent goals have been game-winners. Coyle is 2-1-3, minus-4, in five career games
against the Caps, one of those two goals coming in a 4-3 loss to the Caps on
February 11th.
Twenty different Wild skaters have points over their last
five games, none more than the unlikely Erik Haula, who has more than a third
of his total point production for the season (20) in these last five games
(2-5-7). He, too, has easily surpassed
his career high in point (15) set in his rookie year in 2013-2014. Where to watch for him will be when the Caps
are on the power play. Two of his seven
goals this season have been scored while shorthanded with a shorthanded assist
thrown in. He has multi-point games in
three of his last five games and four in his last eight contests. Haula has just one career appearance against
Washington without a point.
It is unclear who will get the nod in goal for the Wild
against the Caps, given that they will be playing the second of back-to-back
games. Devan Dubnyk is expected to start
against Philadelphia on Thursday. If
Dubnyk does get that assignment and is given the night off in Washington, Darcy
Kuemper is not a big drop off in terms of efficiency. His 2.26 goals against average and .920 save
percentage are both better than Dubnyk’s (2.38/.918), and he has two shutouts
in his 16 appearances to date. He has
just three losses in regulation this season, and they were not flukes. He had a goals against average of 3.05,
allowing nine goals on just 68 total shots (.868 save percentage). The four-year veteran has never faced the
Capitals.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. Minnesota has nine
games all season in which they scored five or more goals. Four of them have come in their last five
contests.
2. The Wild are an
odd team in one respect. Fourteen times
this season they held opponents to fewer than 25 shots on goal, and their
record is 5-6-3 in those games. Not that
they are any better when allowing high shot volumes. Minnesota is 1-3-4 when allowing more than 35
shots on goal.
3. The Wild are the
third-best faceoff team in the league (51.7 percent). However, their special
teams work is not up to that level – 56.5 percent on the power play (11th in
the league) and 46.2 percent when shorthanded (11th).
4. The Wild rank 27th
overall in penalty killing on the road (75.5 percent). They are just 16-for-24 (66.7 percent) in
their last seven road games through Wednesday).
5. Minnesota ranks
21st overall in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (48.1 percent), 23rd in road games (46.2
percent). They rank 25th in the third
periods of games this season (47.5 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com)
1. In 14 games following losses this season (regulation or
extra time), the Caps have a record of 12-1-1 and have outscored opponents by a
48-28 margin.
2. In those 14 games
following losses, the Caps power play is 12-for-56 (21.4 percent), while the
penalty kill is 29-for-38 (76.3 percent).
3. The Caps could not
erase a three-goal deficit against the Canadiens on Wednesday, but they still
have three more wins (16) when allowing the first goal of a game than the next
best team (Los Angeles: 13). The noteworthy
(and perhaps disturbing) thing about that is the fact that the Caps have
allowed the first goal more times (30) than they have scored the first goal
(29). Only 11 teams have allowed the
game’s first goal more times than the Caps, and only two of them – the New York
Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins – are currently in the playoff mix.
4. Washington allowed
the Canadiens a power play goal in their loss on Wednesday, but the Caps have
still allowed the fifth-fewest power play goals on home ice (12, tied with four
other teams).
5. First periods on
home ice have been a problem for the Caps in one important respect. The have allowed the third highest number of
shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (58.9).
Only Philadelphia and Colorado have allowed more (both at 60.4; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Minnesota: Jason Pominville
Jason Pominville is tied for the team lead in goals over
Minnesota’s last five games (three).
For him, the change in head coaches has been, at least
coincidentally, a benefit. Before John Torchetti
took over, Pominville had one goal in his previous 22 games. Previous head coach Mike Yeo saw the problem as a confidence issue and thought he was coming out of his slump, but if he is in fact going to put that drought behind him, another coach will
benefit. One has to wonder, though. After a 30-goal season for the Wild in
2013-2014, he has just 27 goals in his last 142 games. Pominville is 11-12-23, plus-4, in 35 career
games against the Caps.
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
Alex Ovechkin has opened some space between himself and his
closest pursuer for the Maurice Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer,
39 goals to 35 for Chicago’s Patrick Kane.
He is on a pace to finish the season with 55 goals, and folks might not be
aware of just what an accomplishment hitting 55 goals would be. Only four players in league history have
passed their 30th birthday and hit or surpassed the 55-goal mark – Marcel
Dionne (56 goals at age 31 in 1982-2983), Bobby Hull (58 goals at age 30 in
1968-1969), Mario Lemieux (69 goals at age 30 in 1995-1996), and Phil Esposito,
who did it three times (55 goals at age 30 in 1972-1973, 68 goals the following
year, and 61 goals in the season after that).
What is perhaps more noteworthy, given the attachment some observers had
to his plus-minus figure a couple of years ago, his current plus-23 is better
than that recorded in five full seasons of the players noted. None of those five finished with as high as a
plus-20. Only Phil Esposito (plus-51 in
his 1973-1974 season) finished higher than where Ovechkin currently resides. He is 9-3-12, plus-3, in nine career games
against the Wild.
In the end…
The Caps hit the 60-game mark with a chance to record their
fourth ten-game split out of six with eight wins. In that respect the Caps have been a very
consistent team. What seems to have infiltrated their game lately is almost a sense of boredom, reflected early on
in games when they just cannot seem to get started. They have allowed the first goal in each of
their last six games, and they have just one first period goal in that
span. That the Caps would go 4-2-0 in
those games, with both of their losses by a single goal, is either very
surprising (and perhaps something vulnerable to a correction in terms of wins
and losses), or they are just so extraordinarily skilled that it does not
matter much. We would rather they just
not test this proposition and get on with tending to business earlier in games.
Capitals 4 – Wild 2
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