The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals are no sooner done with their 4-2
win against the Colorado Avalanche, and they have to hop a plane to the Valley
of the Sun to face the Arizona Coyotes in Glendale, Arizona. The Caps recorded four goals or more in a
game for the 29th time this season in the win. In the Coyotes, the Caps
will be facing a team that has allowed four or more goals in 29 games this
season.
Arizona has treated the last dozen games of their schedule
like an odd performance of “Dancing With the Stars”…two losses, followed by
three wins, another two losses, another three wins, and wrapping it up with two
losses (6-5-1 overall).
Over those 12 games the Coyotes scored and allowed 26 goals,
their power play going 8-for-40 (20.0 percent), and their penalty killers going
32-for-41 (78.0 percent).
Martin Hanzal leads the team in goals (3) and points (9)
over that 12-gamew stretch. His scoring
lifted him into a tie for 16th place in franchise history in goals
scored (101) and into 19th place in total points for the franchise
287. He has done it while never reaching
the 20-goal mark in his career, 16 being his high in 2010-2011 (he has 13 this
season). Only once has he had a season
with more than 40 points, the 41 points he has this season being his career
best. In seven career games against the
Caps, Hanzal is 1-3-4, plus-1.
Former Capital Boyd Gordon has never been much of a point
producer in his career, but he has been a reliable double digit scorer. Until this year, that is. Gordon has four points in 60 games this
season, both of his goals coming in these last dozen games for the Coyotes, and
his four points almost ensures that he will finish the season under ten points
for the first time since 2010-2011 in his last season with the Caps, the only
full season in his career that he finished under the ten-point threshold. In five career games against the Caps, Gordon
is 1-1-2, plus-1.
Arizona has been rotating goalies through this 12-game
stretch, and both have played well. Mike
Smith and Louis Domingue have split the time almost down the middle, Smith
getting 358 minutes and Domingue getting 357.
Smith is 4-2-0, 1.51, .956 with one shutout over the Coyotes’ last dozen
games, while Domingue is 2.31., 2.18, .930.
Smith is 1-7-1, 4.14, .865 in ten career appearances against the Caps, while
Domingue lost his only career appearance against Washington, allowing three
goals on 34 shots in 59 minutes of a 3-2 loss on February 22nd.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. Arizona’s special
teams are not especially special. Their
special teams index (power play plus penalty killing rates) of 96.5 ranks 26th
in the league. The Coyotes’ penalty kill
is particularly troublesome. It has
allowed at least one power play goal in five of the last six games
(15-for-23/65.2 percent).
2. The Coyotes’ shot
differential per game, minus-3.2, is 26th in the league. It is probably worth noting here that the
bottom seven teams in the league in this statistic are outside the playoff mix.
3. One thing Arizona
does very well is take faceoffs. They
lead the league in overall winning percentage (54.5), are first in even
strength winning percentage (54.2), are fourth in power play winning percentage
(58.7), and are first in shorthanded winning percentage (52.1).
4. There is good news
and bad news concerning the Coyotes and leads after one period. The good news is (and remember, these things
are relative) they have taken a lead into the first intermission 24 times in 77
games, tied for 14th-most in the league. The bad news is they have only 14 wins, tied
for fourth-fewest in the league, and their winning percentage (.583) ranks 28th.
5. The Caps are
getting another team that struggles with possession. Arizona is 28th in the league in
Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall (47.0 percent), 27th in score-adjusted
Corsi-for (46.6 percent). They are worse
at home, ranking 29th overall (47.2 percent) and 28th in
score-adjusted Corsi-for (46.0 percent).
The Coyotes have gone nine straight games failing to hit 50 percent
Corsi-for at 5-on-5 and topped 50 percent just 23 times in 77 games this
season (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. Alex Ovechkin
scored his 19th power play goal on Friday night against the Colorado
Avalanche. His next one will give him
his third straight 20-power play goal season and fifth in his career. It would tie him with Brett Hull for the most
20-power play goal seasons in a career in league history. Only one active player in the league has as
many as two 20-power play goal seasons – Jaromir Jagr, who has been in the NHL
since dinosaurs roamed the earth.
2. Last season, Jay
Beagle scored ten goals in 62 games, the first time in his NHL career he hit
the ten-goal mark. Although it will be a
heavy lift to get to ten this season, his eight goals in 53 games is almost as
good on a goals-per-game basis (0.15 to 0.16), and his points per game is
virtually identical to last season (0.32).
3. Jason Chimera
recorded his 19th goal of the season last night in Denver,
continuing that odd sawtooth patter of goal scoring from year to year. After recording 20 (his only 20-goal season
to date) in 2011-2012, he had three the following year, then 15, followed by
seven last season. His next point will
be his 40th , making it his second career 40-point season.
4. Evgeny Kuznetsov
recorded an assist against Colorado last night, giving him points in
consecutive games for the first time since he had points in five straight games
from March 7-18 (which was followed by a five-game streak without a
point). His 55 assists for the season is
tied for the seventh-highest total for the Caps in the post-2004—2005 lockout
era. If he gets five more he would have
the fifth instance of 60 or more assists in that time.
5. The Caps finished
last night’s game with a Corsi-for of 69.1 percent, their highest of the season
on the road – highest of any game, in fact.
It was their third straight game of more than 50 percent on the road,
two of them at 60 percent or better (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Arizona: Oliver Ekman-Larsson
It says something about the regard in which defenseman
Oliver Ekman-Larsson is held that there should be speculation that the Arizona
Coyotes would consider trading him for the number one overall pick and the
chance to select this year’s generational player, Auston Matthews. Arizona has put the kibosh on that talk for
the time being, but “OEL” remains a budding star in the Arizona desert. Now in his sixth season, he is still just 24
years old (25 in July). He is one of
just five defensemen over those six seasons to have recorded 75 goals and 200
points. Two of the others – Brent Burns
and Dustin Byfuglien – are as much “hybrids” of defemseman/forward, leaving
Shea Weber and Erik Karlsson among the “pure” defensemen in that group. Nice company.
In six career games against the Caps, Ekman-Larsson is 1-3-4, minus-2.
Washington: John Carlson
John Carlson had an assist in the Caps’ 4-2 win over
Colorado on Friday night. That make
three points in five games for Carlson since he returned from a lower-body
injury. And, it is evidence of how
reliable a defenseman he has become at the offensive end of the rink. His 27 assists in 52 games this season is
almost identical on an assists-per-game basis (0.52) as it was last season (43
in 82 games/0.52), and he could finish the season averaging more than 0.60
points per game for the second straight season (he is at 0.65/game this season,
going 0.67/game last season). He could
be one of just ten defensemen over the past two seasons to appear in at least
100 games and record at least 0.65 points per game.
Carlson is 3-2-5, plus-6, in seven career games against Arizona.
In the end…
This is another game that the Caps should win, if for no
other reason that the Coyotes resemble the team they just beat in the Colorado
Avalanche. Arizona struggles with
possession, their special teams are weak (especially their penalty killers),
and they lack depth in top-end skill.
The difference here is that both Coyote goalies are playing well
(Colorado’s Semyon Varlamov allowed three goals to the Caps for the sixth
straight game in which he allowed three goals), and that is always something of
a wild card.
Nevertheless, the Caps are in their finishing kick of the
regular season, and despite coming to the finish line while the rest of the
league seems to be coming out of the final turn, they are 6-2-1 in their last
nine games, 3-1-1 of that on the road.
This game should add to that win total.
Capitals 4 – Coyotes 2
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